Lots of attention on the presidential race. Here is my outlook on the next Senate.
The Democrats currently enjoy a thin 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate. This November, 34 seats are being contested. Of the 12 seats defended by the Democrats only one, LA, looks to be competitive. Of the 22 seats defended by the GOP, five currently look to be lost to the Democrats with another four seats looking at least competitive for the Democrats. The five seats which look to be lost are VA, CO, NM, NH, and AK. The four which look competitive are ME, OR, MN, and NC.
If the Democrats would happen to win all these seats, they would enjoy a 60-40 majority in the Senate. Such a majority could easily invoke cloture cutting off debate on legislation before the Senate. (Cloture is a powerful tool which the minority party in the Senate uses to prevent legislation from being brought to a vote.) Winning nine seats seems unlikely, unless there is a Democratic wave nationwide in November. The more likely outcome is winning the five seats mentioned above, giving the Democrats a 56-44 majority. Though it would be a challenge, convincing four GOP senators to invoke cloture would be possible. One only needs to think of Smith (OR), Collins, Snowe (ME), Specter (PA), Voinovich (OH), or Lugar (IN). It may be easy for the Democrats to find enough GOP votes to invoke cloture on a probable President Obama's nominations to the federal bench and approve them. It may be more difficult to find GOP votes to invoke cloture on anti-life legislation because of the reservations of some more conservative Democrats. Think Casey (PA), Nelson (NE), Landrieu (LA), or Tester (MT). Given Senator Obama's promise to sign the Freedom of Choice Act as one of his first acts as president, these and other Democrats may be the only stop in the coming pro-abortion agenda.
Catholics should take note of the consequences of a larger Democratic majority in the Senate.
**Wish I could be posting more. Life is busy, but my hat is off to my fellow editors who are doing OUTSTANDING work here at Catholics in the Public Square. I plan on soon shutting down Catholics for Bush and posting here and on Twitter with a focus on the congressional races.