Presidential Poll Update: Pew Poll Shows White, Non-Hispanic Catholics Evenly Divided

Here is the link to the Pew Research Poll (conducted from July 31st to August 10th). The Catholic sample shows McCain with a one point lead among white, non-Hispanic Catholics. The national registered voter sample shows that Obama's lead has effectively "disappeared" and is now at three points (the poll's margin of error for national registered voters is 2.5 pts.). Note that registered voter samples usually exaggerate the Democratic candidate's vote. That historical fact tells me that McCain might actually be leading Obama at this point. In addition, there is some history that indicates that African-American candidates "overpoll," as we saw most spectacularly and most recently when Hillary Clinton upset Obama in the New Hampshire primary even though all or virtually all of the polls showed Obama in the lead.